From: Phil deHaan (dehp@calvin.edu)
Date: Thu Nov 21 2002 - 16:18:30 EST
November 22, 2002 == FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
The biggest shopping day of the year, the day after Thanksgiving, is just
around the corner and Michigan retailers are hopeful that 2002 will be better
than a year ago.
Calvin College business and marketing professor Steve VanderVeen says those
expectations might be too hopeful.
"The expectation," he says, "is that holiday sale will be up four percent this
year over last year. Since last year's holiday season was a pretty lousy year
generally maybe it's not unrealistic to think we'll see a gain this year. But
some important things need to happen."
VanderVeen says forecasting Christmas sales is very difficult, given the number
of situational variables.
He says: "There are not only physical and economic variables, but also
psychological variables to consider. And while the economic and physical
variables are relatively easy to quantify, psychological variables are probably
more important, yet also tougher to read."
Physical variables, says VanderVeen, consist of things such as the weather,
number of stores and inventory levels. In fact, industry experts claim the
weather is particularly relevant for the Christmas shopping season, especially
in the northern climes.
"Some snow," says VanderVeen, "is probably good, but too much or too little is
probably bad. Just enough snow to imitate a Currier and Ives winter print
between Thanksgiving and Christmas would put shoppers in the proper Christmas
mood."
Economic variables include how much money people actually have and how many
days they have to spend it.
"Thanksgiving comes late this year," says VanderVeen, "so there seem to be
fewer days for Christmas shopping. And unemployment numbers are higher than
last year so many people are working fewer hours."
Psychological variables are related to economic variables and physical
variables and are probably more important, since psychological variables
influence how much money people think they have. VanderVeen notes that job
layoffs and corporate downsizing, especially among local "bluechip" companies,
and the direction of the stock market have the impact of reducing people's
perceptions of how much money they have to spend on Christmas presents.
Together with fears of terrorism and questions surrounding Saddam in Iraq,
consumers are likely most motivated by fear this Christmas: fear that they can't
afford to spend very much.
"The fact that Michigan retailers are expecting a gain of four percent in
retail sales this Christmas could be realistic given weak sales last Christmas,"
says VanderVeen, "or they could be a rosy forecast in the hopes of influencing
consumers' perceptions that good times are just around the corner."
Contact VanderVeen at 616-957-6338
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